Five That Might Keep Your Fantasy Team Alive in 2015

As the old idiom goes, unless George W. Bush is speaking it: "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me." We all know the list of players who have fooled us two or more times in fantasy football, but shame has no place in this game, so it may be some of those very same players that we have put on the "don't draft" list that might burn us once again by having a great season for someone else. What's worse, your opponent may have drafted the player in a later round. So, let's hold our noses, take a deep breath, and consider just who some of those players who have burned us all in the past, but may be good value bargains for the round they are drafted in this year. In inverse order of their current draft position.

Desean Jackson. I know, I know. But fantasy football is about getting value. Desean Jackson has the potential to outperform his ADP at the end of the 4th round in most formats. Maybe not as a 4th rounder, but if you can let him fall while stocking up on more dependable option in the first 4 or five rounds, then get him in the 5th or 6th round he might be a really exciting WR 2/Flex for your team.

C.J. Spiller: I hear the groans, but that's the point here. Somebody is going to beat you with one or more of these living monuments to disappointment if you don't at least consider drafting them in a mid to later round. Yes, get your studs early, but the whole point is value, and C.J. Spiller is taking all that talent to New Orleans where he'll likely fill the Darren Sproles role, plus maybe even receive a few more carries than Sproles did between the 20's. He's going in the late 4th/early 5th, but I think if he falls to the 6th round he's got value as a RB 3/Flex player, especially in PPR leagues.

Matt Ryan: Matt Ryan was supposed to go nuts last year in the high flying Falcon's offense. But something happened. Something bad. He stunk. Or the offense stunk. Something stunk. But I think it might have been an aberration. Whatever pieces were supposedly in place to lead Ryan to a huge year last year might actually be there in 2015, and if you can pile up your RB's, WR's, even sneak in a top tier TE like Travis Kelce or Greg Olsen, then snag Matt Ryan in a later mid round, I think you might have a bargain.

Jeremy Maclin: Shudders. Has beaten me several time both when he's on my team and when he's on another team. Ok, Alex Smith isn't going to throw a pass more than five yards down the field. But what if he does? What if once or twice a game the Chiefs figure out you can throw the football in this new era of the forward pass? Now that you can likely get Maclin as a WR 3 or even 4 in the 8th, 9th, or a later round, he might have a lot of value if you don't need to count on him being used in the Kansas City offense.

Eli Manning: With his two Super Bowl rings and some huge games and seasons, remember when people were asking if Eli had surpassed his brother Peyton as the better Manning brother at quarterback ? Me either, because it seems like a long time ago now. Manning faded from fantasy relevance after disappointing a few seasons ago when he was predicted to be an elite fantasy QB. he burned a lot of fantasy players, and he didn't seem like he was ever going to regain the form that had people saying he was a sure Hall of Famer and perennial fantasy stud. After attaining a weapon like ODB and finishing last season strong he's not going to be a secret in your draft, but he's also not going to go until a later round. The trick here will be waiting as long as you can for Manning while still having a backup plan like Ryan Tannehill in place in case you get scooped when the game of QB magical chairs ends. 

These five might keep your team alive if you wait for them a couple of rounds later than even you expect them to go, because you're not going to be broken hearted if someone else snags them. Unless they beat you that way, too. 



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Dr. Wolfsburg's Fantasy Waiver Wire Bonanza Week 4

Why you no listen to Dr. Wolfsburg last week? 

Kirk Cousins. I hope you enjoyed it. Anyway, the bye weeks have started, and you're short on running backs. Am I right am I right am I right? The first thing you need to do is relax, because Monte Ball and Eddie Lacy are about to make a comeback. The second thing you need to not do is use your high waiver wire pick on...

Lorenzo Taliaferro. That was it. That was his week. Now he'll be part of a three-headed monster of a backfield for the rest of the year. It's a really thin week on the waiver wire, so you'll be tempted to take him, and you probably will, but it's unlikely you'll ever get much out of it. 

Alfred Blue? That might have been his week, also, but his path to getting substantial carries is far clearer than Taliaferro's. Shouldn't knock your socks off in a redraft league, but has a chance to score double digit fantasy points for your team a few times if Foster can't recover from a hamstring injury.

Oh, Donald Brown. I'm not in the habit of telling you who to add last week, but a lot of fantasy owner have been burned by Donald Brown, and he didn't get added in every league last week. He touched the ball 36 times. He is The Expendables. This is your guy for week 4 if you are in one of the leagues where no one could quite bring themselves and add this retread. Especially now that...

Shaggy Bonaduce is gone. He has compromised the value of your running back for the last time, at least this season. I guess he can get in the Mystery Van and go visit his uncle Gaggy now. Umm, anything else?

oh...

Like I said last week, Pitta and Rudolph are pretty much busts. It's likely you missed the Larry Donnell, Dr. Linus Pauling, Delanie Walker train. Drop Witten, also. Don't replace any of these players, just drop them. Your team will instantly get better. Sign your grandma. I can't help you at Tight End. 

Enjoy the first bye week. I'll be back next week to tell you less, which will be far better than trying to convince you to play Jake Locker week 2 instead of Jay Cutler or Philip Rivers. I don't know shit, and neither do you. 

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Dr. Wolfsburg's Sneaky Waiver Wire Adds For Week Three

Are you 0-2, 1-2, maybe 1-1, or even 2-0? If you play fantasy football, chances are you are. Fortunately Dr. Henry Wolfsburg, Ph.D from Penn, and curator of the Hall of Bad Dudes, is here to help you add another win, loss, or draw to your fantasy football record. Here are some of the Bad Dudes, and otherwise dudes, you can pick up from your waiver wire to win, lose, or draw week 3, and beyond.

Khiry Robinson. Running Back. New Orleans Saints. Add this guy. Add him immediately. For this picture alone. He means business. And if there's one thing we've learned from two centuries of fantasy football, it's New Orleans Saints' running backs are difference makers in fantasy football. Especially the second and third tier ones. So, use an early waiver wire pick, especially in a league I'm in, and get this guy. Put him in your lineup. And wait for the Saints offensive scheme to reward you richly for playing one their running backs. Or just do what other smart fantasy players seem to have done this year, and wait until he lands on a team that will actually use him (Sproles, Ivory). 

That's a visual representation of Running Back 11, better known as Knile Davis. It should be enough for you that the owner who used a number one draft pick for Jamaal Charles is at his cubicle sobbing softly to himself, but if you're a selfish, sadistic bastard, you can do what every other fantasy column in the world has also instructed you to do this week and add his backup, Knile Davis, to your fantasy team. Actually, only one person per league can do that, and if you're doing worst-to-first I can only assume since you're actually making the effort to read this column you're not the worst, so you won't be adding Knile Davis, you want something a little less obvious. Hmmm. I got nothin'. Well, maybe...

Donald Brown. Running back. San Diego Chargers. Ryan Matthews did it again. This guy looks way too happy to be angry enough to stay in bounds and stiff-arm a defensive back just to get two extra yards that might be just enough to get you that extra point that wins you a week. Unfortunately for you, your running backs have been decimated by injury, and if you go any deeper than Brown you're looking at a load of junk and high risk propositions. 

See who is on the Fantasy Football Bum Bus 2014

Isaiah Crowell. Cleveland Browns. Running back. Junk or high-risk, high-reward proposition? Who knows. Best running back in Cleveland? So what?

At wide receiver get over to the wire and add James Jones. He's the number one receiver on a team that will be behind in every game, except for this week now that I've said it, because we all know every year a fantasy stud receiver emerges on the Raiders to help save your season. 

Tight Ends, man. Just looked at the numbers, and if you didn't draft Julius Thomas or Jimmy Graham early, or luck into Antonio Gates or the steady Greg Olsen later, you got nothin'. It may be time to abandon ship and add Larry Donnell, Delanie Walker, Travis Kelce, Dr. Linus Pauling, or anybody that isn't Dennis Pitta, Kyle Rudolph, or Jason Witten to your team. 

Finally...

Now that every fantasy expert in America shoved it up your giggy last week telling you to play Jake Locker instead of Jay Cutler or Philip Rivers, quietly add Kirk Cousins after the waiver wire is finished. Don't play him unless you dropped a real quarterback for Jake Locker, but wait. If you drafted Kaepernick or RG3 or Romo go ahead and play him now. 

That's it. The key to the waiver wire is to constantly anticipate and solve problems before they become problems, but not tinker so much you shoot yourself in the foot. Don't overlook your kickers and defenses this week, but don't ask me for advice on that.

Did Dr. Wolfsburg help you last week? Well, if you'd like to have had Ahmad Bradshaw or Delanie Walker on your team, you bet he did. 

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Dr. Wolfsburg's Fantasy Waiver Wire Additions Week 1

Dr. Henry Wolfsburg, curator of the Hall of Bad Dudes, and fantasy football expert, has been enlisted to help you pick up the pieces of your fantasy football season after bums like Ray Rice, Doug Martin, Tony Romo, Jamaal Charles, Jordan Reed etc etc etc have ruined your week, and threaten to create a hole on your roster you can't recover from. 

The Dr. is in. And he's advising you to let someone else use their early waiver wire pick on Allan Hurns. 

And so here are the doctor's clutch fantasy pickups for week one.

Ahmad Bradshaw. Colts. He's still available in a few leagues. If you saw the Sunday night Colts/Broncos game it was readily apparent the Colts were giving bust Trent Richardson a chance to prove himself worthy of the 1st round pick they wasted on him last year, but when it was time to play big boy football Ahmad Bradshaw was on the field. His pass receptions alone might be worth enough to make him a possible flex on your team going forward, but I believe as soon as next week he'll also be the main rusher in Indianapolis. if you're reading this, you more than likely lost a running back this week, and although Ahmad Bradshaw isn't the running back of your dreams, he'll be serviceable, until injured. Let someone else take Hurns, Forsett, and go for Bradshaw.

Justin Forsett is alive. Turns out he's in Baltimore. And if you're a running back, it's not a bad time to be in Baltimore. It's possible the Ravens will go out and sign someone off the scrapheap this week after Ray Rice was finally released from the team after the video footage of him knocking out his now wife with his fist were released today. I guess some people had to see it to believe it. Shame on them. You remember Justin Forsett. He's teased you before. In Seattle. In Houston. He's got burst, quickness. Will he stick long-term in Baltimore? That's probably irrelevant to you right now that you need a running back pronto. Get Forsett this week.

That's a picture of Jonathan Dwyer. You probably didn't know that. After tonight's Cardinals/Chargers game you may very well forget it again. Or Dwyer might become a partial solution to your week two running back issues. Andre Ellington has done what most of the people who drafted him suspected he might do and pulled up lame already, even before the first snap of the season. It was nice that after the injury was revealed it was also revealed he had been dealing with this injury for several weeks. Thanks. Apparently Stepfan Taylor has been abducted by aliens, because coach Bruce Ariens only sees Jonathan Dwyer. Pick him now if your waiver wire allows that, or contingent upon tonight's game add him to your waiver claims because once a player injures a foot it's unusual for them to make a full recovery anytime soon. 

No more pictures. You'll want to pick up James Starks this week, because after his stock dropped during the preseason games in favor of Dujuan Harris, once the real games started the coach seemed to trust Starks more. Starks won't ease your misery much if you drafted Eddie Lacy with your first pick, but the pity party is over, and it's time to get ready for week two. 

For those of you playing in 8 or ten team leagues, my first question is why bother, but if Terrance West or Mark Ingram are still available, take them. Same advice in 12 or 14 team leagues if you're playing with congenital idiots. I'd probably caution Ingram is only waiting to sabotage your team. He's not getting touchdowns, or carries, every week.

Alright, wide receivers. Hurns, Markus Wheaton, Brian Quick, Steve Smith, Kelvin Benjamin, Andrew Hawkins. 

Replace Jordan Reed immediately. You were duped. So was I. When even the coach says something like "Even if he's ok he might not be on the field for a while" it's time to cut bait. Delanie Walker, Ladarius Green, and his backup Linus Pauling, or whatever his name is. 

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Fantasy Football Bum Bus 2014

It's that time again. Time for one of my most popular blogs of the year. The Fantasy Football Bum Bus. 

How I wish Riley Cooper would get on. I believe eventually the NFL will catch up with society in terms of marijuana use and amend their drug policy so fans don't lose the chance to watch electrifying players like Josh Gordon this year. Stevan Ridley and Trent Richardson didn't do anything untoward as far as I know, except ruin my fantasy football season last year. My fault entirely because I knew neither one was a ten touchdown back. We don't know that Justin Blackmon was suspended indefinitely for marijuana, and there always has seemed to be more to his troubles than just that, but once again, I think the NFL is shooting itself in the foot suspending players for using a substance that will soon be legal in all fifty states. Ray Rice? Get under the bus.

Bum Bus 2013

Bum Bus 2012

September 17, 2014. What a couple of weeks. I really have to stop having Jenny draw these before the season starts. She's too busy with actual paying clients right now to do a revision, and I'm not sure there's enough ink to make sure everyone who deserves a seat on the Bum Bus gets one. I also feel badly some of these guys didn't do anything (we know of yet) but actually suck at football. Seems like a small offense against humanity right now. Get off the bus Stevan Ridley and Trent Richardson, we need those seats.

Also glad to see the NFL has revisited its substance abuse policy, and relaxed the harsh stance it had on marijuana. So Josh Gordon, you also can get off the bus. We need the room for far worse people. The only good news is I think it's about damn time we get these issues out in the open and discuss them like adults. 

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The Impact of the 2014 NFL Draft On Fantasy Football, Day 2

It doesn't really make any sense to write about fantasy football before the draft happens. Even though I've been doing mock drafts for a couple of months now, and have found the draft rooms full since roughly the beginning of March, there's not really much one can say until the NFL draft is finished. In fact I am writing this in advance of day two of the draft, the first round having proven very incomplete in forecasting which offensive players will be sleepers, busts, or breakouts in 2014. I feel Blake Bortles value was crushed by being drafted by Jacksonville, and Johnny Manziel's could soar after being drafted by Cleveland. I've given up on rookie wide receivers, and not a single running back was taken in round one. That will change tonight when rounds two and three happen. The three running backs of interest are Carlos Hyde, Tre Mason, and Bishop Sankey. Any one of the three's value could skyrocket tonight, depending on what team drafts them, or plummet if they end up as a back-up, or on the leaner side of a time share. they also could affect the value of running backs like Rashad Jennings, Shonn Greene, DeAngelo Williams, Ben Tate, Toby Gerhart, and who knows who else might be surprised to find they've had their role reduced by a younger, cheaper rookie?

It seems like a perfect fit for the Tennessee Titans to take either Tre Mason or Carlos Hyde with the 42nd pick, followed by the Giants at the 43rd pick selecting whichever back the Titans leave on the board. In both cases a back set to benefit enormously by an increased workload (Shonn Greene, Rashad Jennings) will wake up tomorrow in a time share, maybe even as a back-up. The Ravens go off at pick 48, and it would make perfect sense for them to take the next best running back on the board, Bishop Sankey, but as a Bears fan I hope either Mason or Hyde fall and the Bears acquire them with the 51st pick.

The quarterback mix em up is far more complex than the running back situation. With Bortles, Manziel, and Teddy bridgewater already off the board, Bridgewater going o the Vikings, it would appear the Texans, Cardinals, and Raiders are next up on the quarterback train. Derek Carr will be the plum tonight, and the Texans have the first shot at him. With the move last night at the end of the draft the Vikings made to secure Bridgewater, the Texans have one less choice. After Carr, only Jimmy Garropolo and Tom Savage would be considered anything but developmental prospects.

So, how will it all shake out in terms of fantasy football? The wide receivers will be what they always are, impossible to predict. As far as quarterbacks, Bortles value got flattened, and Manziel will be everyone's darling in keeper leagues. Teddy Bridgewater needs to be named the starter in Minnesota to have any value, and Carr, Garoppolo, and Savage have an uphill battle to have any value in the 2014 season. That leaves the three top running banks. Carlos Hyde, Tre mason, and Bishop Sankey, along with Johnny Manziel, perhaps Eric Ebron at Tight End in Detroit, and maybe a couple of wide receivers, are the only real difference makers in this year's fantasy football draft. Pin It

Zombie Logic Notes For The 2013 Fantasy Football Playoffs

Hall of Bad Dudes General Manager Dr. Millard Rausch

I played nine fantasy football teams this year. Which is insane, and I knew it was wrong when I was doing it. Despite being bold enough to write occasional columns here at Zombie Logic offering fantasy football advice, I had a terrible fantasy season last year. And after writing my traditional pre-draft columns about busts and undervalued players here again this year, my fantasy season started abysmally. I had multiple teams start 0-3. I had drafted a lot of busts, like David Wilson, and I was paying for it. Julio Jones' injury hamstrung me. Colin Kaepernick didn't help matters by seeming to lose all the magic he had in the last few games of last year. Worst of all, I fell into the pit most fantasy players did: I drafted running backs early and often. Every year there seems to be one prevailing theme that most drafters buy into, and this year it was that running backs are scarce, and if you don't get yours early, you'll be left out in the cold. However, exactly the opposite turned out to be true. Because many of the running backs drafted early turned out to be great disappointments, like Spiller, Rice, David Wilson, Chris Johnson, Steven Jackson. Doug Martin, and because it became apparent by week three that your flex position was going to be filled by a wide receiver rather than a running back most of the time, running backs sort of became an afterthought. You just needed two. And if you were one of those who waited until later for a QB like Kaepernick or Luck while you were piling up those running backs with your early picks, you were getting your brains beat in my Manning or Brees or Rodgers every week. Worse still, Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham was probably beating you single- handedly a lot of weeks.

Unless you managed to right the ship if you made these mistakes, you're not going to the playoffs. I am more than pleased to crow, because despite making all these blunders, I made the playoffs in 6 out of those nine leagues. An early trade for Drew Brees in one league was the defining turning point. Josh Gordon, who I made a point to draft and stash in multiple leagues, was also a bacon saver. One of my better strategies was the two teams where I drafted Jimmy Graham in the second round. I wish I done that, or drafted Calvin Johnson, or a top tier quarterback, more often. Matt Stafford was a rock on two teams. Russell Wilson was almost never huge, but always dependable. 

One of the things that has become most apparent to me this fantasy season is that I don't enjoy fantasy football very much. I mean I don't enjoy it in the sense that is a pleasurable experience to me. I have one league, the only league I play year after year, where I look like a clown every year, and can't even fathom why I never win. If I won in every other league, which I came close to doing multiple times later this year, and lost in that league, I was unhappy. I'm starting to question whether or not I should even play fantasy football next year. I guess a lot of that will depend on how I do in the playoffs, although I can see in every league except one I do not have the best team. Whatever I say here, I know I'll get that familiar urge to start checking the fantasy mock drafts as soon as February. Maybe I need to find a better way to waste my time.

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Is the Running Back Position Antiquated In Fantasy Football?

The first forward pass occurred in 1906. One hundred and seven years later it seems to have made the position of running back obsolete. Or at least it might feel that way to fantasy football players three weeks into the NFL season. The running back has been the staple of winning fantasy football teams since the sport was invented, and prevailing wisdom was you need to load up with running backs to win, but this season that tactic has been more likely to lead you to a slow start than fantasy victory. Almost every expert touted the traditional approach of drafting running backs early and often this year, pointing to the dearth of productive players at the position as rationalization. But after week one, where star performances from the running back position fizzled, almost every aware fantasy player in the world realized at the same time this wasn't a trend, this was the new reality. You're not going to get huge points from your running backs anymore. Teams simply don't want to rely on one player that much, and are utilizing multiple running backs, thereby diluting the value of any one back. The problem is you have to play two, and conventional wisdom has always been if you play a flex player, that player should be a running back, because then you at least can guarantee that player will get a certain amount of touches. But that's not true anymore. So, how should one approach the new reality in order to win at fantasy football?

Wide receiver is where it's at. Try to aim for two anchors at running back, then focus your attention on wide receiver. Don't expect those two running backs to win it for you every week. Just try to not get into a situation where you have no possibility of getting any points at running back. Here's an example from one of my own teams. In a keeper league I almost felt forced to keep Stevan Ridley and Trent Richardson. They were touchdown machines last year, but I always sense they were slow, plodding, and lack the ability to elude a tackle. Most of the weeks they were struggling to amass forty yards, so I had a sneaking feeling I was in big trouble when the touchdowns dried up. Which they did. I now have an 0-3 team with two bum running backs. In other leagues busts like David Wilson set me back, but what really slowed down my fantasy season was buying into the old way of looking at the running back as your main producer, and a requirement at the flex position. If I had piled up wide receivers with bust out potential, like Victor Cruz, Pierre Garcon, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones etc I'd have been far better off than feeling like I had to take someone like Ryan Mathhews because I had to fill that flex position with a running back. I now feel like I'd be better just plugging in two stiffs at running back, concentrating my energy elsewhere, and feeling glad if I got anything from those running backs.

I've noticed a lot of players in leagues who allow it are playing two Tight Ends, and why not? If someone scores, play them. I wonder if next year the experts will give the same advice they did this year that the diminishing pool of running backs who actually touch the ball makes them even more valuable, or if the prevailing opinion will be to take any running back because they all are a lost cause. If you drafted Ray Rice, CJ Spiller, Arian Foster, Trent Richardson in the first round, and most of us did, or the plethora of second and third round picks that turned out to be duds, and I won't even make a list because you might have flashbacks and start wrecking your man cave, you are wishing you had just drafted someone who was going to score some damn points, not to fill in a position you were told was essential, but scarce.

If you're 0-3, 1-2, 2-1, or even 3-0, but you're just not getting anything from the running back position, what should you do.

I say do nothing. Unless you're clearly playing someone who is destined to get you zero points because they're not on the field, put the best two running backs you can find in your lineup, put a QB, wide receiver, or tight end in at flex, depending on what your league allows, and relax in the knowledge that the other team is also playing two players that in most cases aren't going to sink your battleship. Almost every one of us could have had Lesean McCoy, no matter where we drafted, but he is gone. You're probably not playing against him this week. Terelle Pryor was leading the league in rushing until Monday night in week one. That's not an anomaly, that's the new reality. 

Relive the beginning of the worst fantasy football season ever and wonder why you'd take anything I had to say about fantasy football seriously.



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The Beginning of the Worst Fantasy Football Season Ever

You mock draft. Starting in February. It's not right, but you do it anyway. You wait and you wait and you wait and you wait and you wait for fantasy football season. Finally, you draft. It feels good. Maybe you didn't nail it, but your picks were solid. Then you wait and you wait and you wait and you wait and you wait for that Thursday night game. The first game of the season. You even play it coy and hang out with the kids an extra hour to show you can take it or leave it. 

But when you turn on the television the game still hasn't started due to lightning strikes. So you turn it off and watch an hour of It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia and The League before turning the game back on.

Then Peyton Manning throws an NFL record seven touchdowns, and just happens to be playing against you in all three of your leagues. You sit there shellshocked, semi-hoping that the tension in Syria will lead to Armageddon so you don't have to finish this fantasy football season.

For every one of you out there tonight that this happened to tonight, I can only say I feel ya. 




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Fantasy Football Bum Bus 2013

The Fantasy Football Bum Bus is warming up for departure. But who will be on it? Well, you might be surprised.  I don't consider players who get injured, lack the talent to be stars, or for some reason or another just have bad seasons to be bums. For me the deciding factor in naming someone to the Bum Bus is character. Self-inflicted failure. With that in mind let's roll out the Fantasy Football Bum Bus for 2013...

Your driver is Eddie Lacy. He just seems slovenly, like he'd like to eat himself out of being a multi-millionaire and adored by generations to come on a team and a community that treats its stars better than royalty. In the shotgun seat is Rob Gronkowski, who, according to himself, is the party. I'm sure hanging out with porn stars and partying from coast to coast has had nothing to do with his series of recent injuries, but maybe whatever it is he might be taking to substitute for not hitting the gym is. Dez Bryant just seems like he's destined to self-destruct. After being accused of assaulting his mother, the Cowboys gave Bryant an ultimatum last August, and provided him with a full-time security team to keep him from drinking and out of the strip clubs. So far, so good. Maybe Bryant has taken a page out of the Brandon Marshall playbook and grown up a little. 

Last, and least in stature, is Maurice Jones Drew. He's on the Bum Bus for one reason only. When Jay Cutler tore his MCL in a playoff game against the Packers in 2011, big mouth Drew Tweeted the following statement... @Jones_Drew32
Maurice Jones-Drew
Hey I think the urban meyer rule is effect right now... When the going gets tough........QUIT..

Stay on the bus, MoJo, after injuring yourself early last year no one saw you making a miraculous recovery and rejoining your team, either. So, stay on the bus, buddy, I have a feeling it's your last ride. 

Looks like there's a few seats left there on the Bum Bus. Who do you think should take a seat? 

Relive the horror that was the Fantasy Football Bum Bus 2012

Who are the Top Ten Fantasy Football Busts 2013

September 10, 2013: After David Wilson fumbled twice Sunday night, a bunch of bums ordered their tickets for the bum bus, including Willis McGahee, Joe McKnight, and Beanie Wells, but when the Bum Bus finally stopped at Giant's practice, it was one of the biggest bums of all time who got out... Brandon Jacobs. Have fun with that piece of shit, Tom Coughlin.

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Ten Fantasy Football Busts To Avoid In 2013

Ok, so I was only five, maybe six out of ten right about my busts last year, and I ignored my own advice on MoJo Drew, but I feel like I'll do much better this year. Here are my Ten Fantasy Football Busts for 2013. No real order is needed here, a bust is a bust after all. A couple of these will be the obvious ones everyone in the Universe making a list will include, but I think there will be a couple of surprises, too.

Montee Ball, Denver Broncos. Montee Ball scored over 6000 touchdowns at Wisconsin. It's a fact.  And there will be a slew of touchdowns to be scored in Denver this year. Peyton Manning won't be running any quarterback sneaks anytime soon, and Ronnie Hillman won't be getting any goal line vultures, so what's to keep Ball from a 10 touchdown rookie season? Nothing, I guess. I just don't feel like he will. Too many weapons for Manning inside the ten yard line. Plus, even in non-keeper leagues you'll be using a 2nd or 3rd round pick for Ball. I'd let someone else do that.

Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts. I wanted to find a picture of Bradshaw pass blocking, because even if he does play this year that will be his primary function. But he won't be playing much this year. Even if he did, I doubt he'll ever be used in a way that showcases his talents. If he even really has any as a runner, because I saw him stuffed time after time last year for the Giants. You won't be getting a bargain on him, either, in the fourth or fifth round. leave him there.

Arian Foster, Houston Texans. Foster had a great year last year, but it never seemed like he was plunging a spear in my side when I played against him. And the miles piled up. When his tires blow they'll be blowing on a top 5 draft pick. Too much of a risk. My caution with Foster isn't that he's not a first rounder, it's that of the cluster of top tier running backs I think he carries the most risk. Go with one of the other elite running backs. 

Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins. Conehead says it all. Miami says whatever the conehead doesn't. he's not going to be catching touchdowns in Miami. There aren't going to be many touchdowns in Miami. And he's got a conehead. 

James Jones. Green Bay Packers. Is it possible he'll catch double digit touchdowns again this year? No, not really. Even when he did catch his clusters of touchdowns last year I can almost guarantee you weren't playing him. You couldn't. He's a fantasy assassin. Unless you end up playing against him on one of his three touchdown games just be grateful someone else rostered him.

Matt Forte. Chicago Bears. Unless you watch all the Bears games, you probably don't realize Matt Forte could be kept out of the endzone on a goaline run by my grandmother. He can't take the ball in, and it's not a fluke, it's a career-long issue. He won't be getting many goaline carries this year, either, and if he doesn't break off those two or three long screen pass touchdowns he's good for every year he's actually not good for much. Certainly not a 2nd round pick.

Percy Harvin. Seattle Seahawks. Two years ago I went all in on Percy Harvin, which is to say I used mainly fifth round picks to draft him in several leagues. And he did what he always has done: got hurt. Last year I avoided him, but was wary of his ability to ruin my week on someone else's team. And he started the season on an MVP clip. Then he did what Percy Harvin always does... he got hurt. Could he go wire to wire like a house on fire and make everyone who drafts him a playoff contender? Sure. Will he? Meh.

Stevan Ridley. New England Patriots. The Patriots have never been good to me in fantasy football. In fact, by the time I even started playing fantasy football the Patriots had fielded their last fantasy relevant running back. Reasoning does no good when applied to The Hoodie's team. There should be a boatload of red zone touchdown to go around this year. And Ridley should once again get a lion's share of them. But he probably won't. Welcome to Hoodie Logic 101.

Brandon Marshall. Chicago Bears. Marshall made a fool of his critics last year. He had previously made them into sages. But there's one factor alone that makes Marshall ripe to be a bust this year, aside from injury, and that is he just doesn't catch touchdowns. He did last year. But will he this year with the Bears receiving corps adding nothing to take the pressure off him? Maybe. But as a 2nd round pick, and most likely your number one receiver he'd have to to justify your pick. 

Dennis Pitta. Baltimore Ravens. Funny to see you here, Dennis Pitta. You're rocketing up the charts, and by the time real drafts start you'll probably be the number four or five tight end off the board. The bottom line on tight end is even since the current obsession with the tall, athletic tight end, there just have been very few dominant fantasy seasons put up at that position. One or two per year. I don't see this guy having one of those seasons. 








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Will My Incredibly Convoluted Joe Flacco Plan Finally Pay Off In Fantasy Football This Year?

Joe Flacco is going to win you your fantasy football league this year. Trust me. And I'm going to tell you how. 

I'm shocked that after finishing the season on fire, then leading the Ravens to a Super Bowl win, that Joe Flacco isn't even rated as high going into this season as he was last season. In terms of fantasy football, at least. Fantasy Football Calculator has him as the 18th quarterback off the board in the average mock draft (and they run thousands and thousands of them) so far. That's amazing to me. But the good kind of amazing that might help you win your league this year. If you consider Tono Romo is number 12, Eli Manning is number 13, and Jay Cutler number 17, a good case can be made for letting everyone else draft a quarterback in the early rounds while you pile up running backs and wide receivers, maybe even one of the handful of elite tight ends that might actually make a difference. 

Now, if you're one of those people who has been burned over the past three years waiting for Flacco to "take the next step," ignore this advice and draft a stud quarterback, but at least wait until round four or five where you can still get Tom Brady, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan etc. But I believe this might be the year when you can watch everyone else in your league draft a quarterback and still get one almost as good as theres.  Pin It

Tight End In Fantasy Football After Aaron Hernandez

With Aaron Hernandez becoming the second NFL player to be arrested for either murder or attempted murder this week, one might speculate a good use of this blog would be to examine the complicity we have in creating these monsters by spending enormous amounts of money on the NFL. But I'm not going to do that. I'll let The Onion do all the heavy lifting. I'm here to sort out how the arrest of Aaron Hernandez, rated as the number three fantasy football tight end by virtually all sources, affects how you should approach drafting the tight end position in this years draft.

I actually think it changes a lot. Jimmy Graham was good last year, but if you were one of the teams that took him in the second round he wasn't THAT good. Gronkowski didn't play most of the season. Aaron Hernandez didn't help you much in most of the games. With all the recent talk about super athletic tight ends changing the way the game is played, there just haven't been many examples of back-to-back great seasons from anyone at the position. So, I'm starting to think my approach this year will be to allow someone else to invest that high pick on Graham, then even let the herd snap up all the second tier tight ends in rounds 5-7, then get mine later.

So, what earth-shattering deep sleepers do I have that make me confident holding out on a tight end will be the best tactic this year?

None.

I don't think there is a sure bet to have a breakout season in the third tier of tight ends. I just don't believe ANY tight end is guaranteed to catch 8-10 touchdowns, and amass 1000 yards, and those are the numbers I need to pay special attention to the position. Because you're not going to beat me with your tight end unless he's putting up those kind of numbers. 

Without more adieu, here are a few tight ends I feel you'll be able to get in rounds 8 and later of a 12 team draft and have a pretty fair chance of lucking into a good season. First of all, I want to say i think you have to draft two of these to cover yourself. Any two of these... (using Dennis Pitta as the cut off for 2nd tier tight ends. If you can get him using this method I think you're disco, but don't plan on it).

Brandon Pettigrew. Lions

Brandon Myers. Giants.

Coby Fleener. Colts. 

Fred Davis. Redskins

Greg Olsen. Panthers.

Owen Daniels. Texans.

Etc. 

Tight ends you didn't see on this list.

Jared Cook

Jermichael Finley

Martellus Bennett

Antonio Gates

I just don't believe in any of them. Could they also have ten touchdown seasons and make you miserable if you ignore them? Of course. That's the point. My personal opinion is Vernon Davis is the number one tight end this year, but he's beaten me by drafting him as many times as he's helped my team so take that chance at your own peril, but I have a good feeling if I draft Brandon Myers and Coby Fleener I have just a good of chance of getting production at tight end as you do. 

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My Tight End Is Going To Prison and Other Tales of Fantasy Football Woe

I avoided playing fantasy football for many years. Not because I'm one of those people who doesn't get it, but because I'm one of those people who entirely gets it. Any kind of competition you can put a number on I'm in. I knew I would become obsessive and I just didn't want to invest the time. Until five years ago. A fantasy league my brother was in had a player back out at the last second, so I went to the draft and The Inscrutable Zombie Logics were born. And ever since then it has been one disappointment after another. Name a player who either injured himself in the dumbest way imaginable or went to prison and you basically have half the roster to any one of my teams. The thing with the latest addition to this abysmal record of mis-evaluating talent and character is that murder isn't funny, and I have this sneaking feeling the tight end on my team may soon be learning that lesson all too well. It's two more months until our draft, and by that time I have no idea how many of the players I had counted on to make this season make me forget the last will still be able to walk, chew bubble gum, or stay out of the hokey. Nice tattoos. Somebody please tell me Tim Tebow isn't going to be the starting tight end for the Patriots this year. Pin It

Michael Crabtree's Injury and How It Hurts Colin Kaepernick's Fantasy Value

NFL workouts have begun, and the injuries are starting to roll in. I always wonder after four months of off season how players come into practices and instantly get injured. What cheeses me off even more is it always seems to be my players. Or in this case, a player I was in the midst of trading for in the one keeper league I am in. 

I was a big Colin Kaepernick believer even two years ago, and drafted him in my keeper league. But after the run the 49ers and Alex Smith made in the playoffs, and that legendary win over the Saints, it seemed like Kaepernick would never get a chance to start. 

But last year all that changed. After an injury to Smith, Harbaugh seemed to use that as a reason to switch to Colin Kaepernick, who ran roughshod over the Bears and never looked back. He began the season as a bust, but ended it as a near superstar. I was lucky enough to get Kaepernick off the waiver wire, and to be honest, if I hadn't I wouldn't return to the league this year because after four seasons I just haven't had much fun. But Kaepernick is the kind of player that you look forward to watching.

Earlier this week Kaepernick's top target, Michael Crabtree, blew out his achilles tendon in practice, and his return this season is doubtful. Fantasy football writers instantly starting assessing how much this would hurt Kaepernick's value. So did I. 

I'm glad the Stevan Ridley for Michael Crabtree trade I proposed wasn't accepted, although I am not a believer in any running back in New England. 

I'd like to pick up Crabtree late in our draft and hope he does return late in the season. It would be great to pair him up with Kap. 

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